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☆ The two-letter word helping this lender buck the delinquency storm
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But that’s not an accident,” Max Levchin, Affirm’s CEO and a co-founder of PayPal, told CNN in a recent interview. Levchin credits a willingness to say a two-letter word, one that’s not exactly associated with the surging BNPL industry, N-O. It’s that we are honest when we tell them, ‘Hey, we don’t think you should borrow right now.’”Affirm started saying “no” more often in the spring of 2022. That’s when Levchin started observing signs of “financial stress” as inflation surged and gas prices approached record highs. “Say you’re asking to borrow to buy an $800 TV and we really don’t think it’s healthy for you, financially…We can say, ‘That’s too much now.

Persons: “ We’re, that’s, ” Max Levchin, Levchin, “ It’s, ’ ”, ”, “, Max Levchin, Gross, we’ll, ” Levchin, it’s, BNPL, There’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, PayPal, CNN, New York Fed, Target, Walmart, Royal, American Airlines, NY Fed, Federal Reserve, Biden, Trump Locations: New York, Helsinki, Finland, Royal Caribbean, Covid

☆ Credit card interest rates are at record highs. Cards have 'never been this expensive,’ CFPB says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The share of consumers with "subprime" credit scores who hold a credit card has been "relatively stable," they said. Major credit card issuers got $25 billion in extra interest by raising their average APR margin over the last 10 years, the CFPB estimated. "Higher APR margins have allowed credit card companies to generate returns that are significantly higher than other bank activities." They're among the nation's biggest credit card issuers. How to manage credit card interest

Persons: Martinez, Seikel, Lindsey Johnson, Greg McBride, McBride, That's Organizations: Bank, Getty, Consumer Bankers Association, CBA, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Financial, Discover Financial Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ The Fed engineered a miracle. Now comes the hard part.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Yet two months into 2024, Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues seems to have nearly pulled off what many would have called a miracle not long ago. Between a rock and a hard placeThe January Fed meeting minutes reinforced policymakers' careful approach for the months ahead. AdvertisementTo be sure, as far as policy expectations, markets have only recently arrived on the same page as the Fed. "The Fed doesn't want to be seen as having allowed inflation to reignite," he added. "The Fed doesn't want to undo all the good work they've done, and needlessly push the economy into a recession."

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell, James McCann, Abrdn, Gene Goldman, CME's, Gregory Draco, Draco, Larry Summers, Summers, Cetera's Goldman, Goldman, Abrdn's McCann, McCann Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Co, Fed, Cetera Investment Management, Bloomberg

US consumers are struggling with soaring credit card debt and rising interest rates. Credit card debt is now at record levels, and interest rates on those cards have soared. AdvertisementOf that total debt, credit card balances are growing the fastest. While this could create a parallel between today's credit card crisis and the mortgage crisis of 15 years ago, there are a few important differences today. AdvertisementStill, the rise in credit card debt and delinquencies could point to cracks in the strength of Americans' spending power.

Persons: Thomas Nitzsche, Gen Z, millennials, Nitzsche, Ginger Chambless, Chambless Organizations: Business, Money Management, MMI, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, Adobe Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Wells Fargo

☆ Shopping online at 2 a.m.? That’s a red flag for buy now, pay later lender Affirm
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Americans shopping online after midnight often make riskier transactions and are more likely to default on their loans, according to Affirm Chief Financial Officer Michael Linford. The fintech firm uses the hour a consumer attempts a transaction as a key data point to help determine whether to approve loans, Linford told CNBC in a recent interview. Other factors include a user's repayment history with Affirm and transaction data from credit bureau Experian. Shoppers could be inebriated or under financial or emotional duress and desperately seeking credit, Linford said. The buy now, pay later industry offers installment loans that typically range from no-interest short-term transactions to rates as high as 36% for longer-term credit.

Persons: Michael Linford, Linford, Max Levchin Organizations: CNBC, PayPal

☆ Premarket stocks: US companies are still worried about an economic shock
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. But America’s publicly traded companies are flashing a key sign of economic uncertainty — they’ve been hoarding cash. And companies with existing and expensive debt in a high-interest rate environment would likely want to use their cash to pay it down. “We interpret this correlation as evidence that cash reserves act like insurance against sudden economic shocks,” wrote the researchers. The missing bolts are apparently not the only problem.

Persons: America’s, ” Vijay Govindarajan, ”, Dartmouth’s Govindarajan, Anup Srivastava, Chandrani Chatterjee, Max, Jennifer Homendy, Homendy, Evan Spiegel, Tuesday’s, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, CNN, Moody’s Investors, Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business, University of Calgary’s Haskayne School of Business, University of Texas, JPMorgan, NTSB, Boeing, National Transportation Safety, Max, Alaska Airlines, United Airlines, Wall Street, Meta Locations: New York, Ukraine, Arlington, Alaska, Oregon, ”

☆ Younger Americans are falling behind on credit card and car payments, New York Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Delinquencies are rising among younger borrowers in particular, the New York Fed said. Younger borrowers have surpassed pre-pandemic levels of credit card delinquencies. AdvertisementYounger Americans are falling behind on paying credit card and auto loans, with the rate of late payments rising above pre-pandemic levels in the last quarter, the New York Federal Reserve said in a report. Total credit card balances hit $1.13 trillion and auto loans outstanding increased to $1.61 trillion. Advertisement"Serious credit card delinquencies increased across all age groups, notably with younger borrowers surpassing pre-pandemic levels," New York Fed researchers wrote.

Persons: — Organizations: New York Fed, Service, New York Federal Reserve, NY Fed, Fed

☆ Credit card delinquencies surged in 2023, indicating 'financial stress,' New York Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Credit card delinquencies surged more than 50% in 2023 as total consumer debt swelled to $17.5 trillion, the New York Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. The quarterly increase at an annualized pace was around 8.5%, New York Fed researchers said. Credit card debt, however, jumped 14.5% from the same period in 2022. Credit card debt as a share of income is still below pre-pandemic levels. Mortgage debt increased 2.8% in 2023, while the delinquency rate increased to 0.82%, up a quarter percentage point from the previous year.

Persons: Delinquencies, delinquencies, Wilbert van der, Joe Biden Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Auto, Federal Reserve, Washington

☆ Credit card and auto loan delinquencies are the highest in more than a decade
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Americans — particularly Millennials and those with lower incomes — are becoming increasingly overextended financially: Credit card and auto loan delinquencies have not only surpassed pre-pandemic levels, they’re the highest they’ve been in more than a decade. Debt balances increased across the board, with credit card balances rising $50 billion to hit a new nominal high of $1.13 trillion (when adjusting for inflation, balances have yet to surpass the levels seen in 2008). “Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research adviser at the New York Fed, said in a statement. “The delinquency numbers are pretty eye-opening, especially when it comes to credit cards,” Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, told CNN via email. Student loan delinquencies will not be reported to the credit bureaus until later this year.

Persons: ” Wilbert van der, Matt Schulz, “, delinquencies Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, York Fed, New York Fed, CNN Locations: New York

A combination of inflation, increased interest rates, and the end of pandemic-tied relief, such as the moratorium on student loan payments, has led to record credit card debt, experts say. A recent report from credit rating company Moody’s found credit card delinquencies are now well above 2019, or pre-pandemic levels. If you're facing increased credit card debt, while feeling the ongoing effects of inflation, here's what to consider:ASK FOR A RATE CUTPhotos You Should See View All 45 ImagesOne of the first things you should do is ask your credit card company to lower your rates. While the Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday that its first interest rate cut is likely months away, the average credit card interest rate is already far and away higher than the rate set by the Fed. PAY OFF HIGHER-INTEREST DEBT FIRSTKnown as the “avalanche approach,” paying off debt that accumulates interest more quickly will always be more efficient than paying off lower-interest debt first.

Persons: Moody’s, Silvio Tavares, ”, Kia McCallister, Charles Schwab Organizations: —, Federal Reserve, ASK, Fed, National Foundation, Credit, nfcc.org, Federal Trade, Public, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Federation of America, America, Associated Press, Charles, Charles Schwab Foundation, Inc, AP Locations: realtor.com

Amazon on Thursday reported better-than-expected revenue and profits for the fourth quarter, driven by strong consumer spending during the holiday shopping season. The Seattle-based e-commerce company said it earned $170 billion in revenue and $10.6 billion in profits during the last three months of 2023, beating expectations from analysts surveyed by FactSet. In a statement, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy called it a “record-breaking” holiday shopping season for Amazon. The company said its online retail business earned $70.5 billion in revenue during the quarter, a 9% jump compared to $64.53 billion during the same period in 2022. Roughly an hour before it released its earnings on Thursday, Amazon announced a new generative AI-powered shopping assistant called Rufus.

Persons: Andy Jassy, Rufus, – Organizations: FactSet, Amazon, San Locations: Seattle, San Francisco

While there's no universal minimum credit score to rent an apartment, landlords generally prefer applicants with a good credit score, which is at least 670. While your credit score will suffice for some landlords, under the Fair Credit Reporting Act, landlords are also allowed to view your credit reports. The average credit score of a Gen Z consumer is 680 compared to the average baby boomer's credit score of 745. Though these services won't directly help you build credit, keeping track of your credit score is a crucial part of the credit building process. Apartment credit score requirements frequently asked questionsCan you rent an apartment if you do not have credit?

Persons: —, TransUnion, Kendall Meade, Jay Zigmont, Will, Jamela Adam, Read Organizations: Fair, Childfree, Forbes, . News, Mint Intuit Locations: AnnualCreditReport.com, SoFi, Chevron

The firm’s monthly survey showed 107,000 jobs were added, well below the 145,000 estimate. “Progress on inflation has brightened the economic picture despite a slowdown in hiring and pay,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. The ADP report comes two days ahead of the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report for January, with consensus estimates for about a 180,000 gain in payrolls after December’s better-than-expected 216,000 increase. “The January jobs report will likely show that the labor market started the year on a solid note,” said Lydia Boussour, EY senior economist. The strong job market and U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter led the International Monetary Fund to boost its projections of global economic growth this year.

Persons: ”, Nela Richardson, December’s, Lydia Boussour, EY, “, Jerome Powell, José Torres Organizations: ADP, Labor, Federal Reserve, Observers, Interactive, International Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: U.S, payrolls, hawkish, –

☆ 'No big drama' is coming for the US economy, but complacency is a rising risk, 'Big Short' traders say
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

'Big Short' traders told CNBC that investors are too complacent, although the economy is healthy. But traders should still keep their eyes on pockets of risk, such as commercial real estate, the others said. As to today's economy, Eisman considers it relatively healthy, essentially dismissing Wall Street's concerns that a consumer spending drawdown guarantees a coming slowdown. AdvertisementSome on Wall Street are nervous this could trigger a massive real estate default wave, with billions at risk. Still, markets shouldn't be too complacent, as the commercial real estate industry has seen "fits and starts" crop up, Moses said.

Persons: Steve Eisman, —, Neuberger, Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins, Wall, Collins, Moses, Eisman Organizations: CNBC, Service, Consumers, Seawolf, Moses Ventures, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg

☆ The inventor of Wall Street's favorite recession indicator predicts a slowdown this year - and slams the Fed for making things worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"The model is forecasting lower economic growth in 2024 and I believe that will be realized," Harvey said, predicting a slowdown this quarter that will continue into the summer. AdvertisementHarvey also called on the Fed to end its inflation fight, arguing price growth has already normalized based on real-time housing data. "What the Fed has done in this cycle has made things worse, so we will be very fortunate to get out of this with slow growth." That could slow economic growth in the short term but prevent a full-blown recession later, he said. On the other hand, he argued the US should aim to accelerate economic growth to 5% by capitalizing on innovations like artificial intelligence and decentralized finance.

Persons: Campbell Harvey, Julia Roche, Harvey, hasn't, it's Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Duke University, Fed

☆ These 7 recession indicators are still glaring bright red, signaling a sharp downturn could be imminent despite surging GDP and low unemployment
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Combine that with a steady pace of monthly job gains, a historically-low unemployment rate of 3.7%, and inflation under 4%, and it looks like a soft landing is in view. But according to a list of recession indicators from ClearBridge Investments, a downturn is still likely in the months ahead. The Conference BoardThen there's wage growth, which is also declining at a pace typically seen in recessionary environments. On a three-month moving average basis, median wage growth has fallen to 5.2% in December 2023 from 6.7% in August 2022. With the economy holding strong in recent months, consensus has swung heavily back in favor of a soft landing.

Persons: Jeff Schulze, Schulze, Louis Fed, Louis, That's Organizations: Business, ClearBridge Investments, Fourth, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Louis Fed

☆ The US economy ended 2023 with a bang
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter. After real GDP surged 4.9% in the third quarter, the latest point suggests still strong growth. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.3% per the news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Persons: —, Steve Rattner, Willett, Rattner Organizations: Service, National Association for Business Economics, Willett Advisors, Bloomberg, Labor Statistics

☆ This year could be the breaking point for commercial real estate distress, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewThis year will be when the distress brewing in commercial real estate finally reaches its breaking point, according to Capital Economics. The research firm pointed to pessimism that has clouded the commercial real estate sector for the past year. Around $541 billion of commercial real estate debt officially matured in 2023, though fallout was muted as many loans were granted extensions, the firm said. Meanwhile, property investors like Brookfield are raising cash to potentially buy cheap commercial real estate properties that hit the market. AdvertisementSome commentators have warned of an even more severe crash coming for commercial real estate.

Persons: —, Kiran Raichura, Raichura, Kyle Bass Organizations: Service, Capital Economics, Business, Fed, International Monetary Fund Locations: Brookfield

☆ US commercial real estate is suffering one of the steepest price declines in at least half a century, IMF warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Commercial real estate prices are in the midst of one of the biggest drops in the past half-century, the IMF said. AdvertisementUS commercial real estate prices are enduring one of the sharpest drop-offs in the last half-century, easily topping losses seen in previous rate-hike cycles, the International Monetary Fund said. Since the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike in March 2022, US commercial property prices have slumped by over 11%, the agency outlined in a blog post. "Some of the earlier rate hikes, though, such as in 2004-06, were subsequently followed by a recession during which commercial property prices recorded notable declines as demand fell." In one worst-case scenario, that could as much as $1 trillion in commercial real estate equity, according to Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick.

Persons: —, Andrea Deghi, Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Federal, International Monetary, IMF

☆ The buy now, pay later holiday debt hangover has arrived, as consumers wonder how they'll pay bills
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Gabrielle Fonrouge | In Gabrielle-Fonrouge | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

So she turned to a novel solution to get through the season: Buy now, pay later. It's tough to say how buy now, pay later fits into the country's overall debt picture. Klarna, PayPal and Affirm all declined to share buy now, pay later delinquency rates with CNBC. Affirm has said the short-term and high-velocity nature of its buy now, pay later service makes traditional credit metrics less relevant. Klarna said its global default rate for its overall business including buy now, pay later is less than 1%.

Persons: Kiki Andersen, Andersen, I've, I'm, It's, Ted Rossman, delinquencies, who've, Klarna Organizations: PayPal, CNBC, Adobe, Federal Reserve Locations: Los Angeles, U.S

☆ A 28-year market vet breaks down why the risk of a recession is 'higher than thought' — and warns 73 years of market history shows stocks are likely in for a terrible year
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"However, the decline in full-time employment suggests recession risks are higher than thought." Here's the drop in wage growth Roberts mentions. At the moment, CEO confidence isn't great, Roberts pointed out, which could mean further trouble ahead for employment growth. AdvertisementA warning sign for stocksWhile it will take time for the labor market outlook to become clear, Roberts said stocks are already flashing signs of trouble. But that view became less popular in the second half of 2023 as the labor market proved resilient month after month amid Federal Reserve rate hikes, and inflation dropped to under 4%.

Persons: —, Lance Roberts, Roberts, St, Louis Fed, it's Organizations: Service, RIA, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference, Federal Reserve

☆ What broke the American Dream for Millennials
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

For their nine-month-old son, Miles, Rachael and Garrett agree: They’re not going to push him to pursue the same path. “This is the American Dream,” Rachael says. The nest egg mythA common refrain Millennials heard from their Boomer parents is that buying is always better than renting. Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesCentral to the pitch of the American Dream is a house. “I don’t think anyone could have foreseen house prices going up 20% or 30% in a three-year period,” Garrett says.

Persons: Pennsylvania CNN — Rachael Gambino, Garrett Mazzeo, —, Miles, Rachael, Garrett, They’re, ’ ”, ” Rachael, Kristen Gambino, Rachael Gambino, Deborah Brunswick, John General, America it’s, Brendan Duke, Baby, Millennials, gumming, Obama, ”, Louis, Boomer, Luke Sharrett, they’d, ” Garrett, they’re, homeownership, We’re, “ we’re, That’s, Duke, ” Duke, “, Camerota, Matthew Friedman Organizations: Pennsylvania CNN, “, CNN, Center for American Progress, of Education, America, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Workers, Center, American Progress ’ Locations: Lansdale, Pennsylvania, America, United States, Attom, financials

☆ 'A lot of ifs and leaps of faith': 7 investment chiefs and strategists break down earnings trends in what may be a make-or-break Q4, and 3 sectors to watch
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Markets are closely monitoring Q4 earnings results, which began rolling out in mid-January, since they give much-needed clarity on the prior year while setting the tone for the year ahead. AdvertisementWhat to expect during the Q4 earnings seasonEarnings seasons often bring surprises, but there are also bankable bets. But we're going to be driven more by the macro, if we're excluding these mega-cap tech stocks." 3 sectors with boom-or-bust potentialWhile the strategists Business Insider spoke with didn't provide investing recommendations, several shared which sectors they're watching in Q4. Bianco believes the tech sector's earnings will rise over 20% this year.

Persons: —, Matt Stucky, Stucky, David Kelly, UBS Josh Jamner, That's, Jamner, Carol Schleif, Schleif, there's, Anthony Saglimbene, David Bianco, Saglimbene, Bianco, Brad Klapmeyer, Klapmeyer, " Bianco, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, BMO's Schleif, Indrani De, De, she's, he'd, that's Organizations: Service, Business, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Asset Management, UBS, ClearBridge Investments, BMO Family Office, DWS, Macquarie Asset Management, FTSE Russell Locations: Americas

☆ American Express CEO says spending is strong, delinquencies are down from 2019
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Micah Washington | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stephen Squeri, chairman and chief executive officer of American Express Co., speaks during an Economic Club of New York event in New York, US, on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2022. American Express CEO Stephen Squeri on Friday said the credit card company saw "good consumer spending" during the holidays and signs of strong overall health for U.S. spending. In particular, delinquency rates were "lower than they were in 2019," Squeri told CNBC's Scott Wapner in an interview at the American Express PGA Tour event in La Quinta, California. The signs of resilient consumer spending run somewhat counter to persistent inflation. American Express reports its fourth-quarter earnings on Jan 26.

Persons: Stephen Squeri, Squeri, CNBC's Scott Wapner, he's, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, We'll Organizations: American Express Co, Economic, of New, American Express, JPMorgan, Federal, Express Locations: of New York, New York, La Quinta , California, U.S

Thursday's analyst calls featured an upgrade to a car rental stock and a big downgrade to an airline. The bank also hiked his price target on the tech giant to $225 per share, implying upside of 23%. — Pia Singh 5:36 a.m.: Citi downgrades Spirit Airlines to sell Citi is throwing in the towel on Spirit Airlines . Week to date, Spirit shares are down nearly 60%. Spirit shares were down more than 4% in the premarket.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Hertz, Andrew Percoco, Percoco, — Pia Singh, Wamsi Mohan, Fred Imbert, Kirk Materne, Materne, Dan Dolev, Dolev, he's, CFRA, Kenneth Leon, Berkshire Hathaway, Leon, Ranjan Sharma, Sharma, bode, Adam Jonas, Jonas, Morgan, Stephen Trent, Trent Organizations: CNBC, flipside, Citi, Spirit Airlines, JetBlue, Bank of America, Apple Bank of America, Apple, Microsoft, ISI, Activision, Activision Blizzard, Mizuho, Fidelity National Information Services, Paramount Global, RedBird Capital, Warner Bros ., Comcast, Paramount's, Showtime, Paramount, JPMorgan, Grab Holdings, Hertz Global Holdings, Jan, Citi downgrades Spirit Airlines, Spirit, Airlines Locations: Berkshire, 1H24, Wednesday's

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